Photo by Ahmed Gomaa Xinhua via Getty Images For centuries, bread has been the soul of civilization. Uprisings and revolutions have erupted over the availability of this staple food – and food prices in general, especially in the Middle East and North Africa. Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine now threatens a huge chunk of the grain and cereals on which these countries rely. Together, Russia and Ukraine account for about a third of world wheat exports, almost 20% of its corn and 80% of its sunflower oil – and provide most of the MENA supply. Wheat futures are up 30% since the invasion began in late February. Before the war, more than 95% of Ukraine’s total exports of grain, wheat and corn were shipped via the Black Sea, and half of these exports went to the MENA countries. This vital pipeline is now closed, drowning out Ukraine’s maritime trade after its ports were attacked by the Russian military. A farmer wears a bulletproof vest when sowing crops held about 18 miles from the front line in the Zaporizhzhia region of southeastern Ukraine. Dmitry Smolienko Future Publishing | Getty Images The country is now trying to export part of its production by rail, which has huge logistical limits, while Ukrainian farmers whose infrastructure has not been destroyed are trying to cultivate their fields wearing bulletproof vests. Russia is the number one exporter of wheat in the world, as well as – mainly – the leading exporter of fertilizers. Fears of being trapped in Western sanctions on Moscow have already disrupted Russia’s exports.

All of this is exacerbated by rising inflation affecting the population of around 500 million people, especially the poorest and those who are already facing high unemployment and deteriorating economic prospects. “Inflation and the economy, more than political freedom, are the key to stability in the region,” Kamal Alam, a senior non-resident Atlantic Council executive, told CNBC. Alam pointed to the self-immolation of Mohamed Bouazizi, the young Tunisian street vendor whose protest sparked the 2011 Arab Spring protests.
“Even the salesman who committed suicide in Tunis did so out of financial outrage, not (the then Tunisian president) Ben Ali,” he said. “One would argue that the first and foremost reason for unrest in the Arab world is always the lack of economic mobility.”
Inflation jumped to 14.8% in the MENA region in 2021, according to the International Monetary Fund. Already at that point, higher food prices were the main driver – accounting for about 60% of growth in the region, excluding the oil-rich Gulf Cooperation Council states.
This happened before the war in Ukraine started. Now, the UN says food prices since April are 34% higher than a year ago. “We now have 45 million people in 38 countries knocking on the door of famine,” David Beasley, executive director of the United Nations World Food Program, told CBS in an interview last week. “And you can see a general increase in the price of food, say 38 to 40%, but in some of the most difficult places, it will be 100, 200% like in Syria.”
As countries seek alternative sources for their critical food imports, rising global inflation and possible export restrictions make change costly. And the lack of water in the MENA area means that local agricultural production is very limited.

Warnings of unrest, famine and mass migration

Egypt, the most populous country in the Arab world, alone imports 80% of its wheat from Ukraine and Russia. Lebanon, in years amid a crippling debt and inflation crisis, has been importing 60% of its wheat from the two war-torn countries, which supply 80% of Tunisia’s grain.
Egypt “has a lot to lose from the war, as the bread subsidy program reaches more than half the population and is a pillar of the social contract that maintains stability in the most populous Arab state,” said Amer Alhussein, economic development expert and consultant for the post-war Plant for Peace initiative. That, he says, could explain why Egypt’s wealthy Gulf allies rushed to its aid with billions of dollars in central bank funding and other investments to boost its economy. While the Egyptian government may continue to borrow money, rising interest rates in major economies and a weak appetite for emerging market bonds will put a heavy strain on the country “and could become a major risk factor and lead to catastrophic bankruptcy instead of catastrophic its population. Al-Hussein added. Lebanon, meanwhile, faces “many warnings of an impending famine,” Al-Hussein said. “The current situation could very soon develop into protests and riots like the ones that took place in 2019, but with a much more violent impact, given the ever-deteriorating standard of living and food security in the country.” In addition, higher wheat prices alone “could increase external (Middle East) financing needs by up to $ 10 billion by 2022,” the IMF wrote in its latest Middle East and Central Asia Regional Economic Outlook Report. published Wednesday. “Supply shortages coming from Russia and Ukraine could jeopardize food security, especially for low-income countries, as they could also suffer from possible diversion of aid.” About a quarter of Ukraine’s last pre-invasion wheat harvest is still available in the markets, but it will take about three months, analysts say. This fall, warns WFP Beasley, is when the impact of the war will really hit MENA, in a crisis it believes could trigger mass migration.
Lebanese protesters raise a large clenched fist with the word “revolution” written in Martyrs’ Square in the center of the capital Beirut on October 27, 2019, during the ongoing anti-government demonstrations. ANWAR AMRO | AFP via Getty Images “If you think we have hell on earth right now, just get ready,” Beasley warned in an interview with Politico in March. “If we neglect North Africa, North Africa comes to Europe. If we neglect the Middle East, the Middle East comes to Europe.” Taufiq Rahim, a senior fellow at Dubai-based international think tank New America, agreed that the worst was yet to come. “In an era of rising inflation, rising commodity prices and supply chain impasses, the wider region could face an unprecedented economic shock this summer,” Rahim told CNBC. “A new Pandora’s political box will be opened by growing economic discontent and we will see governments subject to increasing pressure.”