Much of the analysis of Russia’s war in Ukraine focuses on violent land-based ground battles as invading and defensive forces fight village by village in eastern and southern Ukraine. Equally important, however, are multinational efforts to stifle the Russian economy, cutting back on energy revenues that fund Russia’s military and denying Russia the foreign technology it needs to maintain and replenish its weapons. Like tank and artillery battles, economic battles are a war of attrition in which whoever lasts the longest is likely to win. The economic war is intensifying as the unlikely begins to seem likely: Ukraine could win. The usually taciturn US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin has started talking about the deliberate weakening of Russia by the US and NATO, on the way to a Ukrainian victory. Heavy weapons, such as tanks and artillery, which Western nations were reluctant to give to Ukraine at the start of the war, are now flowing more freely. In response, Russia has stopped supplying gas to Poland and Bulgaria, its strongest move to punish nations that help Ukraine, and a message that Russia could tighten or shut off taps if it feels that it is increasingly threatened. “All three parties to the conflict, NATO, Russia and Ukraine, are escalating,” the Eurasia Group warned in an April 27 analysis. “Further escalation becomes more likely as hostility increases.” Poland and Bulgaria can probably do without Russian gas. But Russia and its energy customers are now beginning to “arm” oil and gas shipments, one of the most troubling scenarios planned by analysts at the start of the war. If Russia cuts off gas supplies to other European countries or across the continent, it would trigger price spikes in Europe and possibly cause a recession there, which could undermine support for Ukraine by increasing costs by millions. European voters. The story goes on At the same time, European nations are considering a gradual boycott of Russian oil, which could be replaced more easily by other sources than Russian gas. Even so, a wider embargo on Russian oil would boost world prices for all and boost inflation in Europe, the United States and elsewhere. Tightening the screws in the Russian economy causes collateral damage in many other countries. [Follow Rick Newman on Twitter, sign up for his newsletter or send in your thoughts.] Sanctions on Russia’s financial system have had the desired effect. But these sanctions still allow Russia to sell oil and gas, and Russia is benefiting from the high energy prices caused in part by its own invasion of Ukraine. Some analysts believe that Russian President Vladimir Putin timed his invasion of Ukraine with the departure of former German Chancellor Angela Merkel in December or even the replacement of Donald Trump by Joe Biden last year. But high energy prices in the wake of Russia’s invasion on February 24 are more likely to have convinced Putin that he would have a cushion of energy revenue, even with the inevitable sanctions. Russian President Vladimir Putin and German Chancellor Angela Merkel enter a room during a press conference after their talks in the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, August 20, 2021. Alexander Zemlianichenko / Pool via REUTERS Russia’s energy revenues reached $ 76 billion in the fourth quarter of 2021, the highest level in 10 years, according to the Institute of International Finance. The research team believes that higher oil and gas prices could now push Russia’s energy revenues even higher, even with sanctions. That is why European nations and other sanctioning states are now considering going further by halting oil markets altogether or tightening economic sanctions in a way that would effectively deprive them of the funding they need to do so. If any of these things happen, a key factor is whether large energy buyers such as China and India would buy most or all of the oil that Russia could not sell elsewhere, which they could get at a significant discount. in relation to world prices. If they do, it would obviously be a lifeline for Putin’s military funding. The United States is leading the effort to secede from Russia, a campaign of pressure that could reshape world relations for years to come. Military war inside Ukraine is unlikely to metastasize to World War III, but economic warfare may force fenced-in states to side with it and suffer the consequences.
An opaque struggle for technology
Global energy markets provide a minute-by-minute record of how energy warfare is likely to affect prices and the global economy. The battle for Russia’s technology is much more opaque. The United States and many other nations have approved sweeping bans on sales of computer equipment and many other items in Russia, in a widespread effort to put pressure on Putin and the Russian economy. Some of this technology has military applications that could directly affect Russia’s attack on Ukraine. Russia has vast stockpiles of Soviet-era military equipment, but its stockpiles of advanced weapons are more limited. British investigators examining the remains of Russian weapons in Ukraine have discovered a strong dependence on components from the United States and other countries that are now helping Ukraine to fight Russian forces. Russia’s military capabilities include US-made circuit boards on the advanced Iskander-K cruise missile, US fiber-optic gyroscopes on the 9M949 artillery missile, and a British-made oscillator on the TOR-M2 air defense system. “Almost all of Russia’s modern military equipment depends on sophisticated electronics imported from the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, the Netherlands, Japan, Israel, China and beyond,” wrote Jack Watling and Nick Reynolds in a recent report for the research team. RUSSIA. The Pentagon says Russia is starting to have “stock problems” with precision-guided munitions and relies more on “stupid bombs” that are much less accurate. “It’s quite difficult to make sophisticated weapons, and” here the Russian military industry is facing a problem, “according to the RUSI report. Putin and his advisers famously made miscalculations by planning a swift military campaign that would immediately oust the elected government of Ukraine. This horror left Russia with an army shocking with a shell that lost at least a quarter of its combat power and a fierce war that Russia could lose. Another consequence is that Russia is certainly trying to find the foreign components needed to rebuild key stockpiles of weapons. Russia does not need to buy this equipment directly from the companies that make it, which in most cases will violate sanctions by providing anything to Russia. Russia, on the other hand, is likely to seek supplies through third parties or black market sources, or even theft. Western governments are likely to try to prevent such acquisitions. As troops battle on the battlefields, supply chain warriors battle in the shadows.
There does not seem to be an end
A popular theme is that Putin wants some kind of victory that he can advertise until Russia’s “Victory Day” on May 9. But in almost all respects, there is no chance of a decisive outcome so soon. In fact, twin military and economic wars are likely to last for months, if not longer. Europe begins to plan for a shortage or complete lack of Russian energy next winter. The meaning of a gradual embargo on Russian oil would be to squeeze Putin for a period of weeks and months. Putin, for his part, signaled that he was preparing the Russian public for a slogan that could include new mobilizations to help replace soldiers who die and are injured in Ukraine. Maybe we will know the result by May 9, 2023. The markets are probably not prepared for an escalating economic war between Russia and much of the rest of the world. Energy prices rose and stocks fell after the Russian invasion on February 24, but markets have stabilized since then. In the United States, traders are again paying more attention to inflation data and the Federal Reserve than to geopolitical hotspots. The Institute of International Economics predicts that oil prices could reach $ 200 a barrel if there is a full and effective embargo on Russian oil. The only time US oil prices were at this level, on an inflation-adjusted basis, was in 2008, as a deep recession formed. Other factors affect the economy more than oil prices then, but we have other problems now, such as off-energy inflation and the rapid shift from monetary easing to tightening. Recessions usually stem from a combination of factors, not a single source, and there are still some economic upheavals that may arise from Russia’s military barbarism. Rick Newman is the author of four books, including Rebounders: How Winners Pivot from Setback to Success. Follow him on Twitter: @rickjewman. You can also send confidential tips. Follow Yahoo Finance on Twitter, Instagram, YouTube, Facebook, Flipboard and LinkedIn
title: “The Economic War Against Russia Is Heating Up Klmat” ShowToc: true date: “2022-10-24” author: “Jessica Hopkins”
Much of the analysis of Russia’s war in Ukraine focuses on violent land-based ground battles as invading and defensive forces fight village by village in eastern and southern Ukraine. Equally important, however, are multinational efforts to stifle the Russian economy, cutting back on energy revenues that fund Russia’s military and denying Russia the foreign technology it needs to maintain and replenish its weapons. Like tank and artillery battles, economic battles are a war of attrition in which whoever lasts the longest is likely to win. The economic war is intensifying as the unlikely begins to seem possible: Ukraine could win. President Biden plans to ask Congress for $ 33 billion in new aid to Ukraine, including $ 20 billion in weapons. That would be a huge, tenfold increase on what Washington has offered so far. The usually taciturn US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin has started talking about the deliberate weakening of Russia by the US and NATO, on the way to a Ukrainian victory. Heavy weapons, such as tanks and artillery, that Ukraine’s allies were reluctant to provide at the start of the war could soon flood Ukraine. In response, Russia has stopped supplying gas to Poland and Bulgaria, its strongest move to punish nations that help Ukraine, and a message that Russia could tighten or shut off taps if it feels that it is increasingly threatened. “All three parties to the conflict, NATO, Russia and Ukraine, are escalating,” the Eurasia Group warned in an April 27 analysis. “Further escalation becomes more likely as hostility increases.” Poland and Bulgaria can probably do without Russian gas. But Russia and its energy customers are now beginning to “arm” oil and gas shipments, one of the most troubling scenarios planned by analysts at the start of the war. If Russia cuts off gas supplies to other European countries or across the continent, it would trigger price spikes in Europe and possibly cause a recession there, which could undermine support for Ukraine by increasing costs by millions. European voters. The story goes on At the same time, European nations are considering a gradual boycott of Russian oil, which could be replaced more easily by other sources than Russian gas. Even so, a wider embargo on Russian oil would boost world prices for all and boost inflation in Europe, the United States and elsewhere. Tightening the screws in the Russian economy causes collateral damage in many other countries. [Follow Rick Newman on Twitter, sign up for his newsletter or send in your thoughts.] Sanctions on Russia’s financial system have had the desired effect. However, these sanctions still allow Russia to sell oil and gas, and Russia is benefiting from the high energy prices caused in part by its own invasion of Ukraine. Some analysts believe that Russian President Vladimir Putin timed his invasion of Ukraine with the departure of former German Chancellor Angela Merkel in December or even the replacement of Donald Trump by Joe Biden last year. But high energy prices in the wake of Russia’s invasion on February 24 are more likely to have convinced Putin that he would have a cushion of energy revenue, even with the inevitable sanctions. Russian President Vladimir Putin and German Chancellor Angela Merkel enter a room during a press conference after their talks in the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, August 20, 2021. Alexander Zemlianichenko / Pool via REUTERS Russia’s energy revenues reached $ 76 billion in the fourth quarter of 2021, the highest level in 10 years, according to the Institute of International Finance. The research team believes that higher oil and gas prices could now push Russia’s energy revenues even higher, even with sanctions. That is why European nations and other sanctioning states are now considering going further by halting oil markets altogether or tightening economic sanctions in a way that would effectively deprive them of the funding they need to do so. If any of these things happen, a key factor is whether large energy buyers such as China and India would buy most or all of the oil that Russia could not sell elsewhere, which they could get at a significant discount. in relation to world prices. If they do, it would obviously be a lifeline for Putin’s military funding. The United States is leading the effort to secede from Russia, a campaign of pressure that could reshape world relations for years to come. Military war inside Ukraine is unlikely to metastasize to World War III, but economic warfare may force fenced nations to side with it and suffer the consequences.
An opaque struggle for technology
Global energy markets provide a minute-by-minute record of how energy warfare is likely to affect prices and the global economy. The battle for Russia’s technology is much more opaque. The United States and many other nations have approved sweeping bans on sales of computer equipment and many other items in Russia, in a widespread effort to put pressure on Putin and the Russian economy. Some of this technology has military applications that could directly affect Russia’s attack on Ukraine. Russia has vast stockpiles of Soviet-era military equipment, but its stockpiles of advanced weapons are more limited. British investigators examining the remnants of Russian weapons in Ukraine have discovered a strong dependence on components from the United States and other countries that are now helping Ukraine fight Russian forces. Russia’s military capabilities include US-made circuit boards on the advanced Iskander-K cruise missile, US fiber-optic gyroscopes on the 9M949 artillery missile, and a British-made oscillator on the TOR-M2 air defense system. “Almost all of Russia’s modern military equipment depends on sophisticated electronics imported from the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, the Netherlands, Japan, Israel, China and beyond,” wrote Jack Watling and Nick Reynolds in a recent report for the research team. RUSSIA. The Pentagon says Russia is starting to have “stock problems” with precision-guided munitions and relies more on “stupid bombs” that are much less accurate. “It’s quite difficult to make sophisticated weapons, and” here the Russian military industry is facing a problem, “according to the RUSI report. Putin and his advisers famously made miscalculations by planning a swift military campaign that would immediately oust the elected government of Ukraine. This horror left Russia with an army shocking with a shell that lost at least a quarter of its combat power and a fierce war that Russia could lose. Another consequence is that Russia is certainly trying to find the foreign components needed to rebuild key stockpiles of weapons. Russia does not need to buy this equipment directly from the companies that make it, which in most cases will violate sanctions by providing anything to Russia. Russia, on the other hand, is likely to seek supplies through third parties or black market sources, or even theft. Western governments are likely to try to prevent such acquisitions. As troops battle on the battlefields, supply chain warriors battle in the shadows.
There does not seem to be an end
A popular theme is that Putin wants some kind of victory that he can advertise until Russia’s “Victory Day” on May 9. But in almost all respects, there is no chance of a decisive outcome so soon. In fact, twin military and economic wars are likely to last for months, if not longer. Europe begins to plan for a shortage or complete lack of Russian energy next winter. The meaning of a gradual embargo on Russian oil would be to squeeze Putin for a period of weeks and months. Putin, for his part, signaled that he was preparing the Russian public for a slogan that could include new mobilizations to help replace soldiers who die and are injured in Ukraine. Maybe we will know the result by May 9, 2023. The markets are probably not prepared for an escalating economic war between Russia and much of the rest of the world. Energy prices rose and stocks fell after the Russian invasion on February 24, but markets have stabilized since then. In the United States, traders are again paying more attention to inflation data and the Federal Reserve than to geopolitical hotspots. The Institute of International Economics predicts that oil prices could reach $ 200 a barrel if there is a full and effective embargo on Russian oil. The only time US oil prices were at this level, on an inflation-adjusted basis, was in 2008, as a deep recession formed. Other factors affect the economy more than oil prices then, but we have other problems now, such as off-energy inflation and the rapid shift from monetary easing to tightening. Recessions usually come from a combination of factors, not just one source, and there are still some economic upheavals that may arise from Russia’s military barbarism. Rick Newman is the author of four books, including Rebounders: How Winners Pivot from Setback to Success. Follow him on Twitter: @rickjewman. You can also send confidential tips. Follow Yahoo Finance on Twitter, Instagram, YouTube, Facebook, Flipboard and LinkedIn
