Mikhail Svetlov Getty Images News Getty Images Crackers and rhetoric between Moscow and the West have become more aggressive this week, raising concerns that a direct confrontation between the two power blocs could be more likely. Only in recent days, for example, Russia has cut off gas supplies to two European countries and has repeatedly warned the West that the risk of a nuclear war is very “real”. In addition, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that any foreign intervention in Ukraine would provoke, as he said, a “lightning” response from Moscow, while the Foreign Ministry warned NATO not to test its patience. For their part, Western officials have dismissed Russia’s “award” and “dangerous” nuclear war rhetoric, with the United Kingdom calling on its Western allies to “double” their support for Ukraine. CNBC asked the generals about the possibility of a direct confrontation between Russia and the West. Here is what they said.
Nuclear attack?
Earlier in the week, the Russian foreign minister warned that the threat of a nuclear war “could not be underestimated” and said that NATO’s arms supply to Ukraine was tantamount to the military alliance taking part in a proxy war with Russia. Putin doubled his war rhetoric on Wednesday, threatening “lightning” retaliation against any country that intervenes in the Ukraine war and creating what he called “strategic threats to Russia.” He then seemed to hint at the Russian arsenal of intercontinental ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons when he warned that Russia could boast of “tools” for a reciprocal response “that no one else can boast of now… we will use them if necessary”. However, the generals told CNBC that Putin was playing with aversion to danger in the West and that the chances of a nuclear war were slim. “I think it is out of the question at the moment that there is going to be a nuclear war or a Third World War that really spills over beyond the borders of Ukraine,” said Samuel Ramani, a geopolitical analyst and associate at Royal United Services Institute. he told CNBC. “If there is a diffusion at the border at the moment, we are probably still considering something like Moldova being vulnerable to invasion,” he said. An American infantryman in a combined live firearms exercise at the Al-Ghalail Range in Qatar, November 14, 2018. Spc. Jovi Prevot | US Army He noted that Russia has a long history of using the “nuclear rim” as a way to prevent the West from pursuing unsavory security policies, with escalating hostile rhetoric aimed at preventing NATO members from making heavy deliveries. weapons in Ukraine.
Moment of danger
However, Ramani noted that the threat posed by Russia could become more acute if it felt humiliated on the battlefield. In particular, the military failures in Ukraine around May 9 could be a danger. This is Russia’s “Victory Day” – the anniversary of the defeat of Nazi Germany by the Soviet Union in World War II. “Putin has a history of escalating the unpredictable if he feels that Russia is being humiliated in some way; and if there are major setbacks, especially around 9 p.m. [of May] “then there is the risk of unbreakable action,” he said. “But there is also a logically mutually guaranteed catastrophe that we hope will curb everyone.” Threatening nuclear attacks are part of Putin’s “book,” said William Alberque, director of strategy, technology and weapons control at the think tank of the International Institute for Strategic Studies. “Putin enjoys taking risks and believes he has a much greater appetite for risk than the West,” he told CNBC on Thursday. “He is trying to use his old book, ‘If I scare you enough, you will back off,’” he said. “Ultimately, if it uses nuclear weapons, even a demonstration strike, it will turn Russia into a global outcast,” Alberk said. He advised Western leaders: “We just have to be able to manage our risk and keep our nerves and not panic when he does something we might not have expected.” “There is no indication that there will be a direct confrontation,” Liviu Horovitz, a nuclear policy researcher at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, told CNBC. “Both the United States and the governments of Western Europe have repeatedly stated that they have no interest in escalating this conflict beyond Ukraine, and I see no indication that NATO troops will be fighting in Ukraine any time soon.” However, if a wider war broke out, “NATO’s total conventional capabilities exceed those of Russia,” he noted. What’s important now is that “all sides should avoid any steps that could create misunderstandings,” he said – steps that could lead to an accidental and potentially catastrophic war.
Economical war
While NATO has refrained from providing any assistance to Ukraine that could be misinterpreted as a direct attack on Russia, Western allies continue to put pressure on Moscow. Indeed, the economic punishment for Russia is increasing day by day, in the form of more sanctions on companies, key sectors and officials close to or within the Putin regime. Russia’s Economy Ministry itself expects the economy to shrink as a result, by 8.8% in 2022 in its baseline scenario or by 12.4% in a more conservative scenario, Reuters reported. “Russian forces are patrolling in Mariupol, Ukraine, where the Russian army has taken control, on April 22, 2022.” There is no end to Russia’s war in Ukraine and relations with the West are likely to continue to deteriorate, “said one analyst. Leon Klein | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images For its part, Russia has tried to inflict its own pain on European countries, which are awkwardly dependent on large-scale gas imports from Russia. This week, it suspended supplies to Poland and Bulgaria because they refused to pay for gas in rubles. Russia’s move was described as “blackmail” by the EU, but Moscow defended it. While a direct confrontation between Russia and the West remains unlikely, a close Russian observer has said that Western governments need to infuse their people with a “war mentality” to prepare them for the hardships they could face as economic hardship continues. from the war. These include rising energy costs and the closure of supply chains and goods from Russia and Ukraine, among the largest “bread baskets” in the world. “It is possible that we will see a further escalation of the economic war, because in a way, this is a sensible and sensible move by both sides that find it very difficult to fight each other directly due to the dangers of nuclear escalation.” Maximilian Hess, a fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, told CNBC on Thursday. “Russia will cut off gas to more countries, increase its demand for rubles, because it wants to ensure that the ruble convertible remains open and the West has to prepare for it with a full-fledged war mentality, making Western peoples understand that this is going to have a real economic cost and a real impact on the cost of goods, the cost of living and inflation in the years to come. “ “If we do not take this war mentality and apply it to the economic war, then it will be much easier for Putin to win and succeed there,” Hess said.
Other flash points for monitoring
After more than two months of war, Russia has extended its control over territories in eastern and southern Ukraine, trying to build a land bridge from Russia through the territory of Donbass to the annexed territory of Crimea. But it has also suffered heavy losses in manpower and weapons. Meanwhile, the West continues to promise more and more support to Ukraine, and the country’s forces are putting up strong resistance to Russian troops, signaling a protracted and bloody conflict ahead. NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg warned on Thursday that the war in Ukraine could last for years. Andrius Tursa, a Teneo Intelligence adviser on Central and Eastern Europe, said in this context, “there seems to be no end to Russia’s war in Ukraine and relations with the West are likely to continue to deteriorate.” “Rhetoric in Russia is already shifting from declarations of war against ‘nationalists’ in Ukraine to an alleged (proxy) war with NATO. Multiple flashpoints could further escalate tensions with the West,” he said. These include recent explosions in the breakaway Moldovan region of Transnistria (which could serve as a pretext for an increased Russian presence in the region) that could bring the conflict “dangerously close to the NATO border,” Tursa said in a note Wednesday. “Moscow could also intensify its threats to NATO over arms supplies to Ukraine, especially since many military and energy facilities in Russia are said to have been hit by Ukraine. Finally, the decisions of Finland and Sweden to join “NATO will be seen by Moscow as another security threat to Russia and could increase military tensions in the Baltic region.”
