In January, Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin reiterated her country’s traditional stance that it had no plans to join the security alliance. But in early April, he noted that “everything had changed” since Russia invaded Ukraine. “Finland should be prepared for any action by Russia,” he told reporters during a visit to Sweden, adding that Helsinki would decide on NATO membership “within weeks”. While public support for Finland’s NATO membership has ranged between 20 and 30%, recent polls have shown that since the start of the war in Ukraine, about 70 per cent of the Finnish public wants their country to join NATO. Al Jazeera spoke with former Finnish Prime Minister Alexander Stubb to find out what led to this dramatic change. Stubb, who has also served as Finland’s Minister of Foreign Affairs and Finance, is currently a professor and director at the School of Transnational Governance, based at the European University Institute in Florence. Al Jazeera: How would you describe the national awakening in Finland towards NATO membership? What has changed? Alexander Stubb: I think the decision on Finland’s accession to NATO was taken on 24 February at five in the morning, when [Russian President Vladimir] Putin attacked Ukraine. It was then that public opinion basically took a 180-degree turn. From 50 percent against and 20 percent in favor, to 50 percent in favor and 20 percent against. We are currently at 68 per cent in favor and 12 per cent against, and when our political leadership comes out with the application together with Sweden in mid-May, I predict that our percentages will be over 80 per cent in favor of joining NATO. The bottom line is that if Putin can slaughter his brothers, sisters and cousins in Ukraine, he can do the same in Finland and Sweden. For Finns, this brings back memories of World War II. Thus, joining NATO would be a way to increase our own security and the security of the Alliance. Al Jazeera: But this is not the first time Russia has attacked Ukraine. In 2014, when you were Prime Minister of Finland, Russia annexed the Crimean region of Ukraine. Did you think about joining NATO then? Stubb: I am one of the few people in Finland who has always supported Finland’s accession to NATO. In fact, I think we should have joined NATO in 1995, when we became part of the European Union. In 2008 I tried to push for NATO membership. I was the Finnish Foreign Minister at the time and the President of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) and I had mediated for peace in the war in Georgia. After these mediation talks, I gave a speech [on August 8, 2008], which was called 080808. In the speech, I explained how Russian aggression is returning and that Finland should consider joining NATO. But I was pushed back and since then, even when Russia attacked Ukraine in 2014, I have not tried to push for NATO membership because I was a minority. However, now things are different. Seeing how Russia attacked Ukraine in 2022, it seems that this invasion has provoked the people of Finland and changed their minds. When public opinion changes, so do political leaders. Al Jazeera: Prime Minister Sanna Marin spoke about Finland’s accession to NATO when a security report warned that Finland’s possible accession could further aggravate Russia, sparking tensions on the Finland-Russia border. Do you think that the Prime Minister should have waited for the current war in Ukraine to calm down? Stubb: I think, you know, we’ve gotten over that discussion right now. We do not expect any conventional military threats or attacks, because we have one of the largest permanent armies in Europe – 900,000, 280,000 stocks to be mobilized, we just bought 64 F-35s and we have excellent missile defense systems. I think we are better prepared for NATO than most of the alliance member states themselves. But what we will see from the moment we implement in mid-May, until the moment we become a member of NATO, there will be hybrid threats. There will be cyber threats and there will be an information war, and we are prepared for that. For example, when Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was speaking to the Finnish parliament about two and a half weeks ago, the websites of the Finnish Ministry of Defense and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs were lost. And, you know, obviously, it was a Russian attack. At the same time there was a violation of our airspace, obviously again Russians. So these are the threats that we will continue to accept and we are ready. In the bigger picture, Finland and Sweden joining NATO will also increase security in the region. Al Jazeera: Is there any opposition that Finland could face from NATO members in its bid to rise? Alexander Stubb: I’m subjective, but it’s very difficult to put forward any rational argument against allowing Finland and Sweden to join NATO. In addition to strong military troops, we have both of the largest Western telecommunications companies in the world – Nokia and Ericsson – and this is important for the overall security infrastructure. In addition, we really have the experience of fighting Russia, given our own history with the Kremlin. NATO members are aware of our capabilities and will not have a hot head when it comes to our membership.
