Progress is “slow and uneven,” a senior U.S. defense official said, allowing Russian forces to advance only “about several kilometers” each day.
But the United States believes that Russia is trying to learn from the mistakes it made early on, where food and fuel ran out in columns of tanks and armor, leaving the easy prey to Ukrainian tactics “hit and run”. Russia has placed command and control elements near its border with eastern Ukraine, according to a senior NATO official, indicating that they are trying to rectify the communication and coordination failures observed in the attack in Kyiv. Before the start of the invasion on February 24, Russia assembled 125 to 130 regular battalion groups, known as BTGs, around Ukraine and especially near Kyiv, but when the fighting began, Russia’s military leaders showed little ability to defeat them. force them to fight as one.
There are 92 BTGS in the country now, with another 20 just across the border in Russia, according to the senior defense official.
“The attacks are somewhat better coordinated, but with small formations. Company-sized units with helicopter support,” said a European defense official. “The lowest level of mutual support. In NATO that would be a key thing.” However, Western officials familiar with the latest information say that even if Russia has learned key lessons from its systemic failures in the first stage of the conflict, it is not clear that Moscow will be able to make the necessary changes to dominate its territory. Donbass. His army has suffered heavy losses in both manpower and equipment, and officials believe that other equipment transported from various parts of Ukraine may not have been fully repaired yet. Many of the combat units recruited soldiers who had never fought or trained together.
“I do not know how many lessons can really work. It is not a simple thing,” said the senior NATO official. “You’re not just moving tanks and personnel and saying, ‘Now go back to the race!’ US and Western officials largely agree that a few weeks is not enough time for Russia to rebuild its forces from the first phase of the campaign – which took place over large swaths of Ukrainian territory and resulted in the loss of thousands of Russian troops. – and believe that Moscow will continue to add additional forces to the conflict in fragments. Russian President Vladimir Putin is under pressure to prove he can show victory, and eastern Ukraine is the place where he is most likely to be able to do so quickly, US officials say. US intelligence shows Putin is focusing on May 9, Russia’s “Victory Day,” but even if he makes any kind of statement then, officials say it is unlikely to mark the end of his war with Ukraine. “I think this date is likely to be a date where something will be announced, but then they continue with the rest of the campaign,” said the senior NATO official.

A more conventional match

U.S. and Western officials have warned that Russia’s renewed offensive, which focused on disrupting Ukrainian defenses in the east using troops and material withdrawn from across the north, has not yet fully begun. Russia continues to barricade Mariupol to the south, but in Donbas, its advance was much more gradual. Officials predict that the second phase of the campaign, which focuses on eastern Ukraine, will unfold in a very different way from the initial attack, which focused largely on occupying large urban areas. The dry and grassy plain is not homogeneous throughout the area, but in places it may favor more conventional tank warfare. And unlike the rest of the country, Ukraine has been fighting there with Russian-backed separatists since 2014. “This renewed effort in Donbas, we will see Russia launching a campaign that I think will look a lot like conventional games, really going back to World War I and World War II: much heavier equipment, different territory, much more open.” , said the senior NATO official.
Russia is “much more attached to a classic Russian military dogma this time,” said another NATO official – in part because proximity to the Russian border allows Russia to maintain smaller, more efficient supply lines. Russian forces have offered more coordinated air support to troops on the ground in Donbas and “put troops at less risk of retaining lower casualties.” Western officials expect Russia to launch a triple attack to try to isolate and defeat Ukrainian forces.
“Concerns about fighting in the East are manifold,” Illinois Democrat Mike Quigley told CNN. “First of all, this is better ground for the Russians. Secondly, smaller supply lines, lessons learned and the fact that you have a very angry Putin trying to restore, I think, the Russian army to the rest of the world.” One of Russia’s main strengths remains the enormous size of its military and the equipment it has seized from the Kremlin in this war. Last week, the United States estimated that about 75 percent of the forces preparing for the invasion were still intact, and the Kremlin has shown a willingness to commit as many forces as possible to its stated goal of controlling the Donbas region.
It has a military “mass” that is willing to throw at the target until it is completed, a source told CNN, noting that Putin has shown complete indifference to how many Russian forces are being killed in the process.

No guaranteed results

However, despite the military advantages that Russia still has, it is not clear whether it is enough to guarantee them success on the battlefield that they failed to achieve around Kyiv and elsewhere. The Russian units are in a worse situation than expected, according to a US estimate, a defense official told CNN. “Some tanks have a driver and no crew,” the official said. “Some (armored personnel carriers) have no one behind them.” Some of the units have a power of up to 70%, the official noted, which is the line where the western battle dogma states that a unit can no longer be militarily effective. The Russians have used poorly maintained and obsolete equipment to reposition their BTGs, mixing up-to-date and non-up-to-date equipment that could degrade their ability to maneuver effectively on the battlefield. At every step, Russia’s offensive in the Donbas region faces the same fierce Ukrainian resistance that halted their advance on Kyiv, with a notable difference. Ukrainian forces have been fighting Russian-backed separatists in the area for years, giving them plenty of time to dig into fortified defensive positions.
Ukrainians are incorporating new weapons and vehicles received from other countries, including the United States, and continue to impose heavy prices, a source familiar with the situation told CNN.
And as Russia expands its supply lines in Donbas, they will become more vulnerable, the source said. U.S. officials also continue to note the composition of the Russian military, including Putin’s move to expand recruitment and draw the next wave of conscripts – many of whom have been inactive for some time. This suggests that Putin is “scratching the bottom of the barrel,” said a source familiar with the situation.
“Putin is facing an enigma. His power is declining in ability and the condition of his staff is one of his biggest problems. Getting to the reserves is not going to help … in fact, I would suggest it would hurt. It could. “You provide ‘bodies’ but not trained soldiers who will make a difference,” said CNN military analyst and retired Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling. And the moral issues that have plagued the Russian forces still exist.
“We have some early indications that while the conscripts are starting with high morale because they were partying with Russian propaganda, it does not take long for that morale to dissipate once they go into battle and face the Ukrainian resistance,” he said. the senior defense official on Thursday in a telephone conversation with reporters. Finally, the weather can hinder Russian tanks. The mud could force them to get stuck in the streets, leaving them vulnerable to Ukrainian forces, as happened on the outskirts of Kiev. And taking urban areas in any war is a challenge – and it favors the defender.
“I do not think the war will end soon,” said a senior NATO official.