Schroeder has been elusive lately for a glaring reason: he, more than anyone else in recent decades, has been completely and shamelessly linked to Germany’s dependence on Russian energy. Having resigned, he worked for years on plans to build new pipelines directly between Germany and Russia, cutting off Ukraine and other transit countries. He is a close friend of Vladimir Putin and has been nominated to the board of Gazprom, Russia’s state-owned gas company. Even before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, something like an outcast had taken place in his homeland. when the tanks crossed the border, it became outcast. There were many interesting details in the interview, but it’s worth thinking about for a moment. Asked if Russia would cut off gas supplies to Europe, he said: “It will not happen,” adding that if it did, “then I will resign.” Schroeder may be outspoken, but his views on this generally resonate throughout German politics, or were certainly before the war with Ukraine. I have lost count of how many times I have been told the words with the result: Russia will not turn off the taps. As Schröder told the NYT: “They took the money and delivered the gas. Even in the most difficult moments of the Cold War, there were never any problems.” The problem with this version of events is that this is not very true, because there was a famous incident in 2009 when Gazprom refused to supply gas to Ukraine. A series of disputes ensued with the Ukrainian gas company: Gazprom claimed, for some reason, that the payments were not accepted and that natural gas had been stolen during transit through Ukraine. Russia has cut off Ukraine and much of southern Europe for 13 days. Image: Germany angers the Kremlin when it suspends work on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline from Russia after the invasion of Ukraine Doesn’t this episode count as an interruption or at least as a “problem”? Should not he have given Schröder et al a pause for thought? Ah, the technocrats in Berlin. But this incident, as unpleasant as it was for some of our southern neighbors, was not a real halt. It was not a political dispute but a conventional one. Discrimination like this quickly emerges as to what it is: desperate innocence. Continue to this day, and now Poland and Bulgaria have been disconnected from Russian gas. And here, the explanation technically returns to another conventional difference. Russia insisted on being paid not in euros, as these contracts always are, but in rubles, the Russian currency. There is little economic or financial rationale for this demand. It is not, as far as one can tell, necessary from the sanctions in Russia. There is no reason why Gazprom could not accept the euros for gas and convert them into rubles itself. Use the Chrome browser for a more accessible video player 8:34 Russia cuts off gas to Bulgaria But Vladimir Putin has ordered that the only way to pay for these contracts in the future is for European gas companies to set up accounts in Gazprom’s financial arm and make the conversions themselves. The goal is to gain political points. looks a lot like a form of politico-economic humiliation ritual. Poland and Bulgaria refused to participate in the ritual and pay in rubles, which is why they have been cut off. This may not be the end of the world, either for Russia or for these nations. Firstly, we are now in the spring, when Europe is significantly less dependent on gas than usual. Follow the Daily Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, Spotify, Spreaker Poland has plenty of natural gas in storage and plans to start importing liquefied natural gas by the end of the year instead of supplies from Siberia. Bulgaria is more dependent on Russian pipeline gas, but is also set to connect to a new pipeline that will allow it to receive gas from Azerbaijan via Greece. However, this is not really about Poland and Bulgaria. These are the big beasts in the gas import industry: mainly Germany and, to a lesser extent, Italy. The decision to cut off Polish and Bulgarian flows is very much like a warning plan: if you do not follow your example and worship, something similar will happen to you. And make no mistake: while Europe is almost certain to prevent some countries from losing their gas supply, the interruption of gas flows to Germany would result in a sudden and abrupt recession in the continent’s largest economy. . This begs the question: will German importers start paying for their gas in rubles? If they take part in Putin’s humiliation ritual, the Russian president will undoubtedly declare it a victory for Moscow. If they refuse, Russia has set a precedent: it will cut off gas supplies. For “technical” reasons. What will Gerhard Schröder say about this?
