An attack on a NATO ally is an attack on everyone, and so Europe and the US must deal with Russia’s decision this week to cut off gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria. With enough allied coordination, this could boomerang on Vladimir Putin. The Kremlin is blackmailing Europe by demanding that “unfriendly” countries pay for gas in rubles, not euros or dollars, as required by their contracts with Gazprom. European companies have been instructed to set up two accounts with Gazprombank to allow currency conversion. Refusing countries, such as Bulgaria and Poland, risk a gas cut. “The request of the Russian side to pay in rubles is a unilateral decision and not in accordance with the contracts,” said European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. “Companies with such contracts must not meet Russian requirements. That would be a violation of Russian sanctions. ” Mr Putin hopes to erode Western sanctions, stimulate the ruble and divide Europe. This can be a tactical blunder. Europe can not replace about 40% of its overnight gas imports from Russia. But Putin’s blackmail should harden Europe’s determination to reduce its dependence on Russian fuel. Poland shows that it can be done sooner than many think. The Poles saw how Putin had repeatedly armed gas against Ukraine and prepared to build a large liquefied natural gas terminal in the Baltic Sea. Next week, Poland plans to open a pipeline connecting it to Lithuania’s LNG terminal. Another gas pipeline from Norway to Poland is expected to be completed this autumn. Poland says it planned to let its contract with Gazprom expire later this year. Other countries are more vulnerable to Mr Putin’s blackmail, but they have some short-term alternatives. Bulgaria imports about 90% of its natural gas from Russia, but may get more from Turkey and Greece in a short time. Italy has secured an agreement to import more gas from Algeria. Germany has sought to reduce its dependence on Russian gas, which now accounts for 35% of imports, from 55% last year. Fortunately for Germany, wind energy is strong in the spring and power plants can turn to coal. Mr Putin’s trick is a push for Chancellor Olaf Solz to cancel the retirement of Germany’s last remaining nuclear power plants this year. Mr Putin wants to increase the cost to Europe of arming Ukraine and imposing sanctions on Russia. Wholesale gas prices in Europe rose by 20% on Wednesday morning and are more than six times higher than a year ago. If Putin cuts off gas to other European countries, the continent could fall into recession. But cutting exports would also hurt Russia, as fuel sales fund its war machine and almost half of its budget. Mr Putin has few other places to send his gas, so the wells will soon have to be removed and the wells sealed. This could cause long-term damage to Russian gas production. Mr Putin continues to underestimate European solidarity and determination. He may believe that his threats will erode sanctions, but the opposite may be true. Bloomberg reported on Wednesday that German officials were ready to support a gradual ban on Russian oil imports to the European Union. The Biden government could support the Europeans by imposing secondary sanctions on companies that help finance Russia’s oil trade, so that Putin can not easily unload his crude in China and India. It will also have to move the skies and the earth to increase US oil and gas production and exports to Europe. Mr Biden does the opposite. Last week, the administration reaffirmed its support for a ban on leasing public land and imposed new licensing rules that will make it much more difficult to build pipelines and LNG export terminals. This week, he reversed a plan by Trump to open the National Oil Reserve in Alaska to more wells. Mr Putin must smile. Russia’s war against Ukraine has awakened Europeans from their energy illusions, but Mr Biden is still buzzing. Time to wake up, sir. Magazine Publishing Report: Paul Gigot interviews financier and top Kremlin critic Bill Browder. Images: Shutterstock / AFP / Getty Images Composite: Mark Kelly Copyright © 2022 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All rights reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8
