As of April 16, the number of daily new cases in the area rose to 1,510 from 1,100-1,200 last week. Since then the cases have increased by about 78%, to 2,335 today. As a rule of two weeks, hospitalizations should increase rapidly. But over the same period, Covid-related day hospitalizations increased by just 21 patients, from 228 to 249. This increase is nowhere near the corresponding jumps seen in previous increases. The hope is that hospitals are “disconnected” from case trends, which means that the two are no longer as causally linked as before. LACDPH The county is just 2 weeks away, so the next few days could see the usual rise, but the fact that no jump has been made yet is a hopeful sign. Another promising indicator is the suspicion that daily case numbers largely underestimate the number of new infections. Many experts suspect that, given the prevalence of home tests, there are many more positives that have not been counted. If there are even more cases in the area, they will further spread the infections that separate the delta from the hospitals. “We are definitely seeing a significant increase in cases,” said LA Barbara Ferrer, the county’s director of public health. “We are starting to see a small increase in hospitals. We have some things happening here. We abolished some of the security measures and we also had our spring break and spring break. “I hope that this increase that we are seeing will stabilize soon enough without going much higher.” As for hospitalization, Ferrer is not yet ready to declare victory. “Fixed hospitalization rates reflect the usual delays we usually see as well as the protective effects of vaccinations, boosters and therapies, and the natural immunity acquired by some people. [from previous infections],” he said. The wild, says Ferrer, is the new most contagious variant of BA.2.12.1, which for the week ended April 9, accounted for 7% of the samples analyzed. This is higher than 3% last week. And since April 9 was about two weeks ago, that percentage is sure to increase. “You have to look at the data across the country,” Ferrer said. “The East Coast is seeing an increase in hospitalizations and we do not know enough about this new variant BA.2.12.1. So let’s continue to be careful. “Let us continue to be prepared according to what we learn and what we see.”
