This is especially true in Africa and Asia, continents that have been hotbeds of deadly diseases transmitted from humans to animals or vice versa in recent decades, including influenza, HIV, Ebola and the new coronavirus. The researchers, who published their findings Thursday in the journal Nature, used a model to look at how more than 3,000 species of mammals could migrate and spread viruses over the next 50 years if the world warmed by 2 C (3.6 F). ), something that recent research shows is possible. They found that the virus would spread more than 4,000 times between species alone among mammals. Bats represent the majority of new virus sharing. Birds and marine animals were not included in the study.
Consequences for man
The researchers said that not all viruses will spread to humans or that there will be pandemics on the scale of the new coronavirus, but the number of viruses between species increases the risk of spreading to humans.
The study highlights two global crises — climate change and the spread of infectious diseases — as people struggle with what to do about both.
In 2070, human population centers in equatorial Africa, southern China, India, and Southeast Asia will overlap with predicted outbreaks of wildlife. (Colin Carlson / Georgetown University)
Previous research has looked at how deforestation and extinction and wildlife trade lead to the spread of animal-human diseases, but there is less research on how climate change could affect this type of disease transmission, the researchers said in a press release. on Wednesday.
“We do not talk much about the climate in the context of zoonoses – diseases that can be transmitted from animals to humans,” said study co-author Colin Carlson, an assistant professor of biology at Georgetown University. “Our study … brings together the two most pressing global crises we have.”
The assessment is “extremely conservative,” says the independent expert
Experts in climate change and infectious diseases have agreed that a warming planet is likely to lead to an increased risk of new viruses. Daniel R. Brooks, a biologist at the University of Nebraska State Museum and co-author of The Stockholm Paradigm: Climate Change and Emerging Disease, said the study recognizes the threat posed by climate change to the growing risk of infectious diseases. “This particular contribution is an extremely conservative assessment of the potential” emerging spread of infectious diseases caused by climate change, “Brooks said. Aaron Bernstein, pediatrician and interim director of the Center for Climate, Health and the Global Environment at the Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, said the study confirms long-term suspicions about the impact of heating on infectious diseases. “It is worth noting that the study shows that these meetings may already be more frequent and in places where many people live,” said Bernstein. Study co-author Gregory Albery, a disease ecologist at Georgetown University, said that because the onset of climate-based infectious diseases is already likely to occur, people need to do more to learn and prepare for it. “It can not be prevented, even in the best climate change scenarios,” Albury said. Carlson, who also co-authored the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s latest report, said we need to reduce greenhouse gases and phase out fossil fuels to reduce the risk of infectious diseases spreading. Jaron Browne, organizing director of the Grassroots Global Justice Alliance’s climate justice team, said the study highlights the climate injustices experienced by people living in African and Asian nations. “African and Asian nations face the greatest threat of increased exposure to the virus, demonstrating once again how those on the front lines of the crisis have often done the least to create climate change,” Brown said.
